It starts a little slow but after you get past the intro, you begin to see the importance of what he is saying. The part of the talk that got me thinking the most was when he began to point out the TRUE cost of infrastructure and how much of our country’s capital is going to maintain things we get no use from. It does make you wonder.

Spend a few minutes watching this and you will better understand that housing and city building are more related than anyone wants to admit.

I was that guy on Sunday.

While killing time with one of my daughters (who I secretly hope will be an architect, so I am grooming her), I couldn’t help but to stop in several new subdivisions and check out some of the 2011 Parade of Homes entrants. I didn’t get to go out during the official 2011 Parade of Homes weekends so I decided this past weekend was the time. What I saw was very encouraging.

There has been a lot of change in the industry and I am finding that the changes were as I had hoped…builders have begun to build a nicer, but smarter, home. I saw ‘GREEN’ elements in almost all of them. Every single builder had incorporated some element of responsible design, from fully Earth Craft certified to simply doing a MUCH better job of blowing in insulation. I saw smaller footprints and finer finishes and in many cases, a noticeable LACK of pretentiousness.

It was refreshing.

I saw a much higher level of design diversity within the neighborhoods, too. The shapes and sizes and fronts and materials were all QUITE different from house to house. It appears (at least for the time being) that the days of the subdivision where you got to choose from either white, off white or beige vinyl on the exterior are gone. I saw brick, Hardiplank, stone and cedar. I saw Craftsman, Colonial, Tudor and Contemporary influences on the exterior. I saw designs that were narrow and deeper to create a better sense of space between houses.

I also saw a lot of SOLD signs and that is something that was really good to see.

As someone who has been known to spend some time on the fairways and in the bunkers of RVA’s golf scene (doing market research, of course…..) I have a good feel for the courses, the clubs and the real estate that many times surrounds them. I have been lucky enough to play every private course in the area enough times (and most of the public ones, as well) that I feel qualified to give the Realtor/golfer perspective (if there is such a thing) on the courses and the relative strengths and weaknesses. In the interest of full disclosure, I am a member of the Federal Club in Hanover and was a member of Hanover Country Club for many years prior. I also worked at Stonehenge during college.

Climate

Generally, you can find a few days to play even into January.

RVA, from a golf climate standpoint, is on a bit of a cut line that makes it tough to have one turf carry the course through the entire playing season. The majority of courses in Richmond have bent grass greens (no bermuda greens) and bermuda fairways. Sometimes, bermuda fairways are “over-seeded” with rye grass during the early spring to increase playability until the bermuda comes out of dormancy typically in mid-May. While I have played rounds in both January and February, it is more an exception than the rule so expect a 9.5 to 10 month playable season.

Several of the upper end (and newer courses) have opted for bent grass fairways (in lieu of the typical bermuda). This provides a wonderful surface for playing and it can be maintained all year long but at greater expense than the bermuda based courses. Additionally, an extended extreme temperature streak can cause issues for bent grass (the summer of 2011 has been especially challenging and several courses in the area and region lost either a few or almost all of their greens.)

The Courses

Amazing clubhouse, peerless practice facilities, the best trained staff I have ever encountered and greens a fast as anything you can imagine. Kinloch is well executed.

For the most part, Kinloch (Goochland) is considered the best RVA (and arguably, the State) has to offer. It boasts PGA tournament level conditions, world class customer service and one of the best clubhouses in the area. It also boasts a fabulous practice facility and 19 holes (yes, 19) but offers nothing other than golf for its members. It is one of two courses in Richmond that features the caddy system. It is a newer course so the design features are more modern meaning more shaping and mounding than courses built in the 1950′s to the 1970′s (the era when most of Richmond’s private courses were built.) It is bordered by home sites on some holes, but not many, and they are mostly custom builder driven, with a section of one level living homes targeting empty-nesters.

County Club of Virginia (City of Richmond and River Road Corridor in Henrico)

If you like classic and manicured, the James River course is about as good as it gets in RVA.

As the name would suggest, is one of the oldest and wealthiest clubs in RVA. It offers three courses, The River Course (which hosts high level State tournaments and is considered the best of the three), Westhampton (which was recently renovated) and Tuckahoe Creek.

The Westhampton course abuts the University of Richmond and is visible from Cary Street making it well known throughout the City. CCV’s courses are classically designed and the CCV facilities are quite substantial. CCV boasts tremendous diverse facilities with dining, tennis, fitness and events in addition to 3 courses. There is not any real housing development surrounding these courses (the courses are all older) but there are houses that do border the course and availability varies.

Salisbury (Midlothian) and Hermitage (Goochland)

While these clubs exist on different sides of the River, they are similar in many ways in that they represent mature clubs with substantial facilities that serve more than just the golfing member. Both Salisbury and Hermitage offer more than 18 holes (27 and 36, respectively) and the courses are similar in age and course design (with the exception of the newest 9 at Salisbury) and both have houses that surround the courses (but not on the level of many golf course developments). The clubhouses are similarly scaled and offer all of the typical country club services with dining, tennis, swim and fitness. Hermitage is also known for its racket facilities and hosts numerous tennis tournaments throughout the year.

Both courses were designed in such a way that they have the length to handle the changes in technology that have harmed many older courses and thus can still handle RGA and VSGA tournaments.

The 1st hole at the Federal Club sets the tone for a challenging start to a fabulous layout

The Federal Club (Western Hanover)

Opened in 2008 just as the market turned (down, in case you didn’t get the memo,) The Federal Club opened to great fanfare but whose success was stunted by the plunge of the economy and real estate market, upon which much of its business model was dependent. After being acquired by the lender and subsequently sold to a local family, The Fed is back on track with new members and capital improvements being added at a rapid pace.

Designed by Arnold Palmer’s best architects and shaped by the crew that remade the K Club in Ireland for the Ryder Cup, the course is arguably the best test of golf in Richmond. The Signature Tournament, held each year in May, attracts some of the best players in the State, including many elite collegiate players.

The Federal Club is entirely bent grass and is one of the only courses in RVA to feature bent grass fairways AND greens making it an unique golfing experience.

The setting for TDC's Clubhouse provides for a striking visual as it refelcts off the lake and is framed by the 9th and 18th greens

The Dominion Club (Glen Allen)

Built in the later 1980′s as the centerpiece of the Wyndham Subdivision developed by Snyder-Hunt (now HH Hunt) near 295 and Nuckols Road. Wyndham/TDC did an excellent job of really making the golf course and clubhouse a signature of the development. Anyone who has played the course, knows the striking roofline of the clubhouse and the 9th and 18th greens reflecting off the lake as you turn the corner on Dominion Club Drive.

TDC is a solid golf course. It would be considered a modern course in that there was a large degree of shaping and strategic bunkering. It played host to a Nike Tour/Buy.com tournament for many years and it’s signature moment was Notah Begay shooting 59. The clubhouse is excellent and the pool and tennis facilities are also very strong. TDC also boasts one of the largest memberships in the area despite some recent developer/club issues relating to ownership of the land the course is built upon.

Richmond CC (Goochaland/Henrico Border along Paterson Avenue)

Richmond country Club, located along the border of Henrico and Goochland, provides a unique test of golf in that it has narrow tree lined holes that force controlled shots into tight landing areas. It is a full service club with pool, tennis and dining but does not have the same scale of clubhouse as CCV or Hermitage.

The Foundry (Powhatan)

The Clubhouse setting at the Foundry is truly spectacular with the Fine Creek forming a small waterfall adjacent to the putting green.

When first opened in the early 1990′s, The Foundry was a unique concept to Richmond in that it was golf only (no tennis or swim), with caddies required, and a level of service that was not found in the RVA golf market. Kinloch now offers the same ‘top end’ service/golf only model. The course is generally in excellent condition and the entry features and clubhouse are some of the most memorable and striking in Richmond.

The Foundry is a great experience.

Stonehenge (Midlothian) and Brandermill (Midlothian/Chesterfield)

Both courses were built towards the end of the 1970′s and are modeled similarly as clubs that cater to a surrounding neighborhood. Both Stonehenge and Brandermill are larger subdivisions that surround their courses. Brandermill would be considered to be the more hilly and narrow of the two with a higher density of houses that abut the course. Brandermill also borders The Swift Creek Reservoir along several holes giving that section of the course a little extra visual ‘umph.’

Stonehenge has redesigned a few holes since its inception and hosted a Buy.com tournament mid-2000′s. It is the longer of the two courses and for a course built prior to the modern era of earth shaping, did a good job of creating differing holes within the layout without creating man made differences, especially along the first holes of the back nine.

Both clubs offer pretty solid amenity mix with a nice pool complex, tennis and dining facilities.

Willow Oaks (City of Richmond/Forest Hill Avenue)

The view down the 9th and 18th fairways from the patio is a memorable one for those who have attended events at Willow Oaks

Visible from the Powwhite Parkway bridge, Willow Oaks is a classically designed golf course with several holes that wind along a very scenic section of the James (don’t pull it left on number 5….) Many a golfer has taken a glance to their right as they cross the bridge on a sunny day and wished that they were in the midst of a round instead of on their way to an appointment. Willow Oaks has hosted the State Open on numerous occasions and its Fall Invitation attracts a quality field from all over the Mid Atlantic.

The Willow Oaks facilities are excellent (especially the racket facilities) and anyone who has ever attended a wedding or event there invariably ends up on the rear patio overlooking the 9th and 18th greens to watching golfers finish up their 9′s.

Lakeside and Hanover (Lakeside area and Ashland)

Lakeside and Hanvoer are considered to be two of the more value oriented courses in the RVA Metro. Built in more tightly constrained areas, the courses rely on sharp doglegs, small and fast greens and narrow fairways to provide the teeth that their lack of length does not. Hanover CC has the superior facilities with a small driving range and larger club house. Lakeside is accessible from everywhere so it makes it easy to sneak away for a quick 18 without being discovered (unless your boss is on the course, too). Both courses play quickly so a round there is not a full day commitment.

Lakeside is currently closed to renovate their greens and expected to reopen in Spring of 2012. Hanover underwent a renovation in 2008 so the course should not be in need of any major upgrade (think ‘assessment’) for the foreseeable future.

Meadowbrook (South Side/Jeff Davis Highway)

Built in the late 1950′s as a club to service the burgeoning industrial presence that DuPont and Philip Morris’ were bringing to the area, Meadowbrook boasts a value oriented course, strong membership and solid test of golf. As with may courses built in the era before technology changed the length required for a championship course, Meadowbrook relies on tight fairways (#2 feels as narrow as a bowling lane) and some of the smallest greens in the area (#18 is the size of my closet) to create an excellent test of golf. With a relatively flat setting, it is also an excellent course to walk.

This home was an upper end green renovation with an addition that nearly doubled the home's size. There is no comparable sale on which to base value.

Well, we can be sure it is within 10% of the actual value about 65% of the time. I don’t know about you but I am looking for a lot more accuracy than that.

The rise of the AVM (Automated Valuation Model) has brought a new wrinkle to valuing property that has been considered either controversial or accepted (depending on whether it supports your position on the value) and it is not going away. Appraisers and Realtors generally don’t like it because it attempts to estimate property values based on inputs that are questionably accurate. Zillow or Trulia never see the houses that they value nor do they see the houses that they use as comparables but somehow they spew out an estimate of value that the marketplace seems to accept as accurate more often than not.

All 3 of these homes in Hanover now have finished space in their basements that was unfinished when they were completed in 2006 and it is not reflected in the tax assessments. The AVM relies on tax assessments as part of the model.

When do these sites work well?

Zillow and Trulia work fairly well when there are homogenous properties (similar in age, scope and construction method) and a large sample of sales to draw from….but even with a larger sample and similar properties, it is still not without issue. In cases where there have been ample sales in a subdivision of similar homes, then yes, an AVM can predict values with some degree of accuracy. In urban neighborhoods or neighborhoods that have a large degree of diversity in style and size/custom neighborhoods, the AVM’s do not work well at all.

With any method of valuation, make sure you understand what is underpinning the analysis. A computer in Seattle telling me about an modern home with an addition overlooking the James River in Manchester is not going to yield an accurate result. Likewise, a home that had a high degree of similarity with neighboring properties when first built can vary greatly over a short time frame due to upgrades, unfinished space being finished and maintenance differences.

At the end of the day, diligent research about available options and watching what properties go under contract will lead any buyer or seller to a much more accurate decision than any AVM.

Question:  What is happening at the corner of 17th and E Broad?

The Southland Wine Company Loft leased in under 4 months and are just one of many option in the new development node within walking distance to the MCV Campus

The Richmond Cold Storage complex is a series of warehouses that produced ice (thus the name) as well as a few other warehouses and vacant lots that have been either converted to apartments (via Historic Tax Credits) or have become “ground-up” urban infill.  When all said and done, the apartment count in within a 2 block radius of the corner will be somewhere between 700 and 800.  When you include the project being developed on the entire block at Main and 21st, the count comes closer to 1,000.

That is substantial development in a relatively small area in a very compressed time frame and the good news is that they are leasing well for prices that can only be described at as pleasing to the developers that built them.

This new node of development in the northern end of  ”The Bottom” is an excellent trend for an area that has always struggled to sustain commercial/retail momentum.  By targeting the “all inclusive” model at the Medical crowd and within walking distance to the Medical complex, the apartments seem to be creating their own momentum.  The apartments are shifting population trends into eastern sections of the City and adding living options that did not exist in the area prior to just  few years ago.

Cold Storage, Cedar Broad, Southland Wine Company and Raven’s Place are all part of the overall development area that will impact the City for decades to come.

What lags behind, in many cases, is the methods we use to measure, describe and predict. There is a little changing we need to do as Realtors in Richmond.

For many years, the zones of Richmond have remained stagnant. Zone 10, which is the primary zone that contains the Downtown Richmond neighborhoods (other than Manchester) plus The Fan and Museum Districts always served us pretty well. However, it is really no longer reflective of how we search, either as agents or as the buying public. It is hampering growth and we need to change it.

10, 50 and 60 really don't reflect traffic, development or search patterns for Downtown

Manchester is technically small parts of both zones 50 and 60. It is bounded by the city limits to the south of the river and is split by Hull Street. It is unfortunate as it is lumped in with areas that do not truly share its history, style or momentum. It is also truly holding back its growth.  It is also one of the ONLY cases in the MLS where a neighborhood is truly split by a line from MLS.

As Richmond grows, our MLS needs to grow with it. I feel strongly that the Manchester area should be incorporated into Zone 10 as part of what is considered to be “Downtown” (or have 50 and 60 merged in Manchester.) The traffic patterns, development paths and physical proximity make it more “10″ than “50″ or “60.” Furthermore, having Hull Street serve as a dividing line couldn’t be any less reflective of the reality of Manchester.  The way it is right now is wrong on every level.

When Manchester was industrial, it did not matter.

As a Realtor, I want our MLS to be as accurate as possible.

As a Richmonder, I want true market forces to dictate successes or failures and not financing or outdated lines.

Right now, nothing about MLS and Manchester is correct and we need to get it right.

The Manchester Pie Factory used both Historic Credits and Tax Abatement to reduce both development cost and ongoing ownership expense

The tax abatement program that was put into place in the City of Richmond in the 1990′s has been another lesson in incentivized urban renewal that has, for the most part, worked quite well.

The abatement program effectively says that improvements made to qualified properties are not taxed for a period of time…usually anywhere from 10-15 years…depending on the property type and use as well as when the property renovation was completed and put into the program.

While there are other facets to the program that govern how the abatement is actually computed, it is best understood as a program that reduces the taxable value of a property by the value of the improvements made.  In other words, the net effect is that the City continues to tax the property as if it has not been improved.  This credit is attached to the property and not the individual who completed the improvement so that if a property is sold prior to the expiration of the abatement, the remaining abatement passes to the new owner.

As an example, if a property was worth $500,000 prior to being improved and worth $800,000 after the renovation or addition, the City would issue an abatement credit of $300,000 making the net taxable real estate amount $500,000.  At the city tax rate of 1.2% and figuring a 10-year abatement, the value of the abatement in actual savings would be $60,000.

That is pretty powerful.

The overall goal is to create a situation where someone is not ‘dis-incentivized’ to improve their property.  By creating lower costs of ownership for residents from a real estate perspective, additional revenues can be generated in sales and meal taxes and higher values of real estate in the aggregate.  This abatement program is especially effective in creating scenarios where vacant buildings were brought to life and are now filled with multiple tenants or owners all eating out, buying groceries and other items and increasing the vibrancy of the revitalized areas.

The Abatement program works hand in hand with the Historic Tax Credit Programs to increase the likelihood that abandoned structures are renovated.

One criticism of the abatement program is that it is only applicable to existing structures and not vacant land.  Between HTC’s and Abatement, the overall cost of new construction compared to heavily incentivized renovation of old structures is arguably prohibitive.  There has been some talk of an abatement program for new construction, but as of now, only existing structures qualify.